Helping you separate fact from fiction
If you're following the news, chances are you've seen or heard some headlines about the housing market that don't give the full picture. The real estate market is shifting, and when that happens, it can be hard to separate fact from fiction. That's where a trusted real estate professional comes in. They can help debunk the headlines so you can really understand today's market and what it means for you.
Here are three common housing market myths you might be hearing, along with the expert analysis that provides better context.
Myth 1: Home prices are going to Fall
One piece of fiction many buyers may have seen or heard is that home prices are going to crash. That's because headlines often use similar, but different, terms to describe what's happening with prices. A few you might be seeing right now include:
- Appreciation, or an increase in home prices.
- Depreciation, or a decrease in home prices.
- And deceleration, which is an increase in home prices, but at a slower pace.
The fact is, experts aren't calling for a decrease in prices. Instead, they forecast appreciation will continue, just at a decelerated pace. That means home prices will continue rising and won't fall. Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains:
"... higher mortgage rates coupled with more inventory will lead to a slower home price growth but unlikely declines in home prices."
As we look at our local real estate markets we can see that a deceleration of house prices is the most likely outcome of the current situation. For example in Lexington, median prices have begun to stabilize in recent months at about 5% higher than last year.
Myth 2: The housing market is in a correction
Another common myth is that the housing market is in a correction. Again, that's not the case. Here's why. According to Forbes:
"A correction is a sustained decline in the value of a market index or the price of an individual asset. A correction is generally agreed to be a 10% to 20% drop in value from a recent peak."
As mentioned above, home prices are still appreciating, and experts project that will continue, just at a slower pace. That means the housing market isn't in a correction because prices aren't falling. It's just moderating compared to the last two years, which were record-breaking in nearly every way.
Myth 3: The housing market is going to crash
Some headlines are generating worry that the housing market is a bubble ready to burst. But experts say today is nothing like 2008. One of the reasons why is because lending standards are very different today. Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst for HousingWire explains:
"As recession talk becomes more prevalent, some people are concerned that mortgage credit lending will get much tighter. This typically happens in a recession, however, the notion that credit lending in America will collapse as it did from 2005 to 2008 couldn't be more incorrect, as we haven't had a credit boom in the period between 2008-2022."
During the last housing bubble, it was much easier to get a mortgage than it is today. Since then, lending standards have tightened significantly, and purchasers who acquired a mortgage over the last decade are much more qualified than they were in the years leading up to the crash.
While mortgage interest rates have risen recently we now see that they are stabilizing even as the Federal Reserve increases interest rates.
As we begin to transition out of the pandemic its also interesting to look at the number of home sales. In Lexington the number of home sales rose dramatically in 2020 and 2021.
As we look at 2022 year-to-date we see that it is returning to the levels seen in 2018 and 2019. One more sign that the house market is beginning to return to its pre-pandemic levels.
No matter what you're hearing about the housing market, let's connect. That way, you'll have a knowledgeable authority on your side that knows the ins and outs of the market, including current trends, historical context, and so much more.
The market has favored sellers over the last couple of years. While shifts in the market are occurring, the market still resides in favor of sellers for now. However, the good news is that there are more active listings in the market today than last year. So, whether you're a seller or a buyer, the best way to navigate and stay on top of these market shifts is to work with a local real estate agent who you can trust.