47 Turning Mill Rd, Lexington

Market Analysis for:

Enamul and Sultana Haque

Prepared: 2/28/18

I've done a market analysis on your home at 47 Turning Mill Rd in Lexington and have prepared this document to help explain how I've arrived at a price for your home. I perform a market analysis and calculate a price taking into consideration a home’s location, size, configuration, number of bedrooms and baths, lot size and general condition. I also scrutinize the home for issues that, in my experience, will impact the price of a home making it more or less valuable. Then, I look at your current competition - the other homes that buyers in your price range will be viewing, to help determine your price.

Contents

  1. Description of Home
  2. Market Dynamics
  3. Analysis of Relevant Properties
  4. Pricing Recommendation
  5. Marketing

Description of home

Please note that these comments do not relate to marketing, but are included purely to ensure that we have captured the information and reflect the major components of your home.

The home was built in 1959 and is on 0.94 acres in the desirable Turning Mill neighborhood. The home backs onto conservation land, and the land gently slopes toward the street. There are 5 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms along with a 2 car garage and 2 driveways on either side of the home.
The home is full of natural light, double paned windows, hardwood floors along with wall to wall carpets in the lower 2 levels. The front door is accessed by the right side driveway with a paved pathway and steps to the front door. As you enter the front door the living room and dining room are off to the right, with the kitchen directly ahead beyond the brick chimney’ed fireplace and steps to the upper level and lower level. The living room is huge with a wood burning fireplace at the end, wall of windows to the rear, and dining room with another wood burning fireplace. Past the dining room is the kitchen with an informal dining area. A door from this area take you into the cedar lined sunroom, lined with windows and with skylights and tiled floor. The kitchen is lovely with stainless steel appliances and granite countertops. Up the stairs is a full bathroom with a vanity with corian counters and a tub/shower. 2 family bedrooms on this level have built in closets. The master bedroom is large with 2 mirrored double closets. The master bathroom has double vanity sinks with corian counters, a shower and separate whirlpool tub. The 3 bedrooms on this level have sloping ceilings giving a more spacious feel to the rooms. The family bathroom and master bathroom look to have been done approx. 20 yrs
previously. 

Down the stairs from the main level is a large family room with a built in media center and has wall to wall carpets on this level. 2 bedrooms, both a little smaller than the bedrooms upstairs, are on this level. The family bathroom on this level has corian counters, and a tile lined tub/shower. This bathroom also looks to have been done approx. 20 years previously. From this level you can access the side door via a mudroom, and can access the huge 2 car garage. The garage is very deep and has storage at the back of it. Downstairs from this level is the separate laundry room, the unfinished furnace area, lots of closets, and a full walkout door to the side yard. Also on this level is another play room with a wood burning fireplace.
The home has 5 bedrooms, 3 full baths, built in 1959, 2 car garage on 0.94 acres.  Estimation of the living area, including all 4 levels totals 3770 sq ft.  This is calculated by doubling the first floor area and also including the enclosed heated sun room of 272 sq ft in the total.

Public records have the home at 1749 square feet. This is clearly not considering the 2 lower levels of your home. So long as we disclose in MLS how we calculated the living area we will be fine. The total we will use for this market analysis is 3770 square feet. The diagram below was sourced from public records and shows the square footage breakdown of your home.

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Market Dynamics

We have been experiencing shortages of housing inventory in Lexington over the last 5 years or so. There are always a number of buyers looking to buy in Lexington because of the strong school system, the community dynamics and vibrant downtown. People like the feeling of the downtown area, and want to stop and have a coffee, or have dinner at the many restaurants, or just watch the world go by, chatting with folks who are out and about. The Minuteman bike path and conservation areas close by pull those who desire an outdoor lifestyle while still remaining within commuting distance to Boston.

The Lexington market has seen increasing prices over the last few years given the limited inventory. The demand for homes in Lexington far outweighs the supply and each month a snapshot of available homes for sale shows the declining inventory levels.

Average prices in Lexington are well above average prices obtained in the peak of the market in 2005. Average single family home prices have been increasing steadily since 2009. The real estate market downturn that existed for the last few years is well and truly over and prices are continuing to increase each year.

Sales distribution statistics for single family homes show that the $1M-$1.5M price-range is the most active in Lexington. The next busiest price range in Lexington is the $1.5M - $2M price range. This is an indicator that new construction is having a significant impact on the average single family home prices in Lexington. The number of new construction homes being built in Lexington in 2013 was 55 homes, 70 homes in 2014, 71 homes in 2015, 66 homes in 2016, and 55 in 2017.

Before reviewing the price per sq foot charts it is important to throw in a caveat of using the average as the definitive guide. There is wide variability among agents as to what is included in the living area reported in MLS. In some instances, agents will include a finished component of the basement in the living area and this is acceptable so long as how the living area is calculated is disclosed. Others report the living area reported in public record, which never includes finished areas in the basement, but note in MLS that there is a finished basement. To this end, it is important to review each individual listing to determine the ‘true’ price per sq. ft. of above ground living area, but we also need to factor into this when a home has a finished basement.

Reviewing the price per sq. foot charts for single family homes shows us that the average price per sq. ft. in Lexington around the $1M-$1.5M price range is around $393 per sq. ft. It’s important to note that the maximum price per sq. ft. achieved varies across most price ranges, along with the minimum obtained for each price range.

When the year built in the 1950’s the average price per sq. ft. is $413.

The chart below shows that single family homes in Lexington of similar size to your home in the 3,000 square foot range, have an average price per square foot of $387 but it increases to $405 per sq. ft. when you decrease to the 2,000 square foot range. It is common across municipalities to see an increase in the price per square foot for smaller sized homes, as it reflects the minimum cost of a home in a town irrespective of the property size.

The chart below shows how many months’ supply of inventory there is in a given price range. It uses the assumption that given the same rate of sales over the prior 12 months, and considering current inventory available for sale, how many months it should take to sell the available inventory. This is referred to “Absorption” in the real estate world. 

Any price range where there is more than 7 months’ supply, we consider there to be an oversupply of inventory, also known as a ‘buyer’s market’. Anything between 4 – 6 months is considered a balanced market. Anything less than 3 months’ supply is considered a shortage of inventory on the market at this price range, also known as a ‘sellers’ market’. As can be seen, currently, absorption rates for all homes in the $1M-$1.5M price range is no supply showing a severe shortage.

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Analysis of Relevant Properties

The following map shows the  homes that we believe to be of value in determining the price of your  home. Below the map you will find basic information  provided for each home including the price the home was  listed at, and the price the home sold at (if sold), the listing date, Days on market, Bedrooms, Bathrooms, living area size and lot size.  Noted for each home is a classification of Relevance which outlines whether we think the  property is valued Less (L), Relevant/Comparable (R) or Higher (H) than  your home. The notes for each home outlines the similarities and differences between  your home and the one being analyzed.

Your details: Living area 3770 sq ft (includes all finished levels and heated sunroom) | 5 beds | 3 baths | Lot size 0.94 acres | Built 1959 |  2 car garage

This contemporary mid-century modern style home was built in 1959.  It is smaller than your home at 2,408 sq  ft of all above ground living area. Your home has 3,770 sq ft of living area (includes all finished levels and the heated sunroom). This home has 1 less bedroom than your home, having 4 bedrooms. It has less bathrooms than your home does, having 2 full bathrooms and 2 half bathrooms.  It sits on a smaller 0.70 acre lot, whereas your home sits on a large 0.94 acre lot.
The main living area is on the second level. The living room has a fireplace inset into a brick chimney to the beamed cathedral ceiling, picture windows, hardwood floors, and an exterior access to the deck. It has an open floor plan with the family room, the kitchen and the dining room. The dining room has picture windows and hardwood floors. The family room has cathedral ceiling with skylights, hardwood floors, and an adjacent half bathroom. The kitchen also has a beamed cathedral ceiling with skylights, 2 tier breakfast bar peninsula, granite countertops, cherry cabinets, white appliances, hardwood floors, and an informal dining area. There are 2 bedrooms on this level which have hardwood floors and 2 other bedrooms are on the lower level which have wall to wall carpeting. The master bedroom is on the 3rd floor and it has hardwood floors and an attached half bathroom. This home also has an office and a playroom on the lower level which have vinyl flooring. The home is not in as good a condition as your home.
This home is located in the Turning Mill neighborhood. It  has an attached 2 car garage and 6 car off street parking. It has hot water baseboard heating. It was listed for $899,000 and was sold for $887,500 which is $369 per sq ft.

Relevance: Less. Given the smaller size, inferior condition, smaller lot size I believe your home will sell for more than this home.

Your details: Living area 3770sq ft (includes all finished levels and heated sunroom) | 5 beds | 3 baths | Lot size 0.94 acres | Built 1959 |  2 car garage

This contemporary colonial style home was built in 1930.  It is larger than your home at 3,986 sq  ft of all above ground living area.  Your home has 3,770 sq ft of living area (includes all finished levels and the heated sunroom).  This home has the same number of bedrooms as your home, both having 5 bedrooms. It also has the same number of bathrooms as your home does, having 3 full bathrooms.  It sits on a smaller 0.75 acre lot, whereas your home sits on a large 0.94 acre lot.
The foyer has a skylight and leads to the living room. The living room has a fireplace and hardwood floors. The dining room has custom built ins, bay windows, and hardwood floors. The family room has a stove fireplace, hardwood floors, and exterior access to the backyard. The kitchen has pantry and ceramic tile floors and has an informal dining area with hardwood floors. The bedrooms are on the upper level including the master bedroom. The master bedroom has a cathedral ceiling, an attached bathroom, walk in closet, and has wall to wall carpeting. The master bathroom has shower stall and Jacuzzi. 2 of the 3 bedrooms have hardwood floors and all 3 bedrooms share a family bathroom which has a double vanity sink. The home was in rough shape and was subject to a bankruptcy.
It has an attached 2 car garage and 4 car off street parking, central air and central heat. It was initially listed for $925,000 but price was dropped to $859,950 before it went under agreement and sold for $925,000. It sold for $232 per sq ft.

Relevance: Less. Given your superior condition I believe your home will sell for more than this home.

Your details: Living area 3770sq ft (includes all finished levels and heated sunroom) | 5 beds | 3 baths | Lot size 0.94 acres | Built 1959 |  2 car garage

This contemporary style home was built in 1963.  It is smaller than your home with 1,989 sq ft of all above ground approx living area. Your home has 3,770 sq ft of living area (includes all finished levels and the heated sunroom). This home has 1 less bedroom than  your home, having 4 bedrooms. It has equal numbers of bathrooms as your home, having 3 full bathrooms. It sits on a smaller size 0.83 acre lot whereas your home sits on a 0.94 acre lot.
Upon entry to the foyer from a enclosed porch, one has to go up the stairs for the main living area is on the second level. The living room has a fireplace on bricks to the ceiling, beamed and vaulted ceiling, custom built ins, hardwood floors, picture windows, and has an open floor plan with the dining room. The dining room has beamed and vaulted ceiling, picture windows, and exterior access to the screened porch and the deck through french doors. The kitchen has cathedral ceiling, lots of white cabinets and storage, white appliances, and ceramic tile floors. On this level are 3 more bedrooms and they share an adjacent family bathroom, have vaulted ceiling, picture windows, and hardwood floors. The entry level includes the family room which has custom built ins, picture windows, and wall to wall carpeting. It has access to the master bedroom which is also on this level and it has exterior access too. It has an attached bathroom, cathedral ceiling, and hardwood floors.
It has a detached 2 car garage and paved 5 car off street parking, and has hot water baseboard and electric baseboard heating. It was listed for $899,000 but was sold for a higher price of $930,000 at $468 per sq ft.

Relevance: Less. Given similar condition but smaller size I believe your home will sell for more than this home.

Your details: Living area 3770sq ft (includes all finished levels and heated sunroom) | 5 beds | 3 baths | Lot size 0.94 acres | Built 1959 |  2 car garage

This contemporary mid-century modern style home was built in 1960.  It is smaller than your home at 2,476 sq  ft of all above ground living area. Your home has 3,770 sq ft of living area (includes all finished levels and the heated sunroom). This home has the same number of bedrooms as your home, both having 5 bedrooms. It has 1 less full bathroom as your home does with 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom, yours has 3 full bathrooms. It sits on a smaller 0.71 acre lot, whereas your home sits on a large 0.94 acre lot.
The main living area is on the 2nd level and it has an open floor plan with beamed cathedral ceiling. The living room has a fireplace inset into a brick chimney to the ceiling, wall of windows and picture windows, skylights, and hardwood floors. The formal dining area has access to the family room. The family room has walls of glass, cathedral ceiling, wall to wall carpeting, and exterior access through a french door. The kitchen is lovely and has a breakfast bar peninsula, quartz countertops, ceramic tile backsplash, white cabinets, stainless steel appliances, vinyl floors, beadboard walls, picture windows, and exterior access on the informal dining area through a sliding glass door. The master bedroom is also on this level and has a cathedral ceiling, picture windows, hardwood floors, and has an attached bathroom which has a double sink vanity. The 4 other family bedrooms also have cathedral ceiling, hardwood floors, and picture windows. The home office and the playroom is on the street level and has a fireplace on bricks to the ceiling, crown molding, beadboard walls, picture windows, and vinyl floors.  
This home is located in the Turning Mill neighborhood. It  has an attached 2 car garage and 6 car off street parking. It has forced air heating and central cooling. It was listed for $795,000 and was sold for $952,000 with competing offers and for $384 per sq ft.

Relevance: Less. Given the smaller size, similar condition, central air I believe your home will sell for more than this home.

Your details: Living area 3770sq ft (includes all finished levels and heated sunroom) | 5 beds | 3 baths | Lot size 0.94 acres | Built 1959 |  2 car garage

This contemporary style home was built in 1958.  It is smaller than your home with 2,444 sq ft of all above ground approx living area. Your home has 3,770 sq ft of living area (includes all finished levels and the heated sunroom). This home has 1 less bedroom than  your home, having 4 bedrooms. It has equal numbers of bathrooms as your home, having 3 full bathrooms. It sits on a smaller size 0.72 acre lot whereas your home sits on a 0.94 acre lot.
Entry to the home is through the foyer which has wall of windows, vinyl floor, and skylight. The living room has a fireplace inset into a brick chimney to the beamed ceiling, beadboard walls, wall of windows, and wall to wall carpeting. It has an open floor plan with the formal dining room. The family room has a beamed cathedral ceiling, wall of windows, built in cabinets, and hardwood floors. The kitchen is lovely with a breakfast bar peninsula, white cabinets, black stainless steel appliances, picture windows, hardwood floors, and an informal dining area. It has access to the stunning sunroom through large sliding glass doors. A bedroom with wall to wall carpeting, cathedral ceiling and wall of windows is also on this level. The master bedroom and the 2 other bedrooms are on the 2nd level. The master bedroom has a vaulted ceiling, windows to the ceiling, custom built ins, beadboard walls, and wall to wall carpeting. Another family room also has a vaulted ceiling, windows to the ceiling,beadboard walls, and wall to wall carpeting while the other one has vinyl floors.
This home is located in the Turning Mill neighborhood. It  has a detached 2 car garage and 4 car off street parking. It has hot water baseboard and central heating and wall AC cooling. It was listed for $939,000 and was sold for $970,000 which is $397 per sq ft.

Relevance: Less. Given the smaller size, similar condition I believe your home will sell for more than this home.

Your details: Living area 3770sq ft (includes all finished levels and heated sunroom) | 5 beds | 3 baths | Lot size 0.94 acres | Built 1959 |  2 car garage

This contemporary style home was built in 1961.  It is a little smaller than your home with 3034 sq ft of living area. Your home has 3,770 sq ft of living area (includes all finished levels and the heated sunroom). This home has 1 less bedroom than your home, having 4 bedrooms. It has more bathrooms than your home, having 3 full and 1 half bathrooms. It sits on a smaller size 0.76 acre lot whereas your home sits on a 0.94 acre lot.
Upon entry from the porch to the foyer, the living room is on the left, with stairs immediately in front. The living room has a fireplace inset into a brick chimney, sliding glass doors out to the deck and is open to the dining room. From the dining room you access the huge kitchen via an opening.  The kitchen is huge and is large enough for informal dining and is open to the huge family room beyond. The family room has access to the large wrap around deck.  Upstairs is the master suite which has a study with a skylight, cathedral ceiling with lots of natural light, wall to wall carpet, walk in closet and large bathroom with dual sink vanity, jacuzzi tub and shower. 3 additional bedrooms are on this level all of them with wall to wall carpet, one of them having its own attached bathroom. On the lower level is a large playroom with a fireplace and lots of storage, workshop and utility room.
This home is located in the Turning Mill neighborhood. It  has an detached 2 car garage and 6 car off street parking, and has hot water baseboard heating. It was listed for $1,133,000 and went under agreement immediately so it has more than likely sold for asking price or more. It was listed for $374 per sq ft.

Relevance: Relevant, but less. Given the similar condition, similar location, slightly smaller home I believe that this home is relevant to your home but your home should sell for more.

Your details: Living area 3770sq ft (includes all finished levels and heated sunroom) | 5 beds | 3 baths | Lot size 0.94 acres | Built 1959 |  2 car garage

This contemporary style home was built in 2016.  It is larger than your home with 4,200 sq ft of all above ground approx living area. Your home has 3,770 sq ft of living area (includes all finished levels and the heated sunroom). This home has the same number of bedrooms as your home, having 5 bedrooms. It has more bathrooms than your home, having 3 full and 1 half bathrooms. It sits on a smaller size 0.70 acre lot whereas your home sits on a 0.94 acre lot.
Upon entry from the porch to the foyer, the office is on the left through glass doors and it has custom built cherry cabinets, picture windows, and hardwood floors. The main level has an open floor plan but one has to pass through the kitchen to get to the living room. The living room has a fireplace on bricks to the ceiling, custom built ins and cabinets on either sides of the fireplace, picture window, hardwood floors, and exterior access through sliding glass doors. The dining area has picture windows, wainscoting, beadboard ceiling, and hardwood floors. The kitchen has a 2-tier breakfast bar island, granite countertops, decorative tile backsplash, stylish white cabinets, high end stainless steel appliances, a pantry, wine chiller, picture windows, and hardwood floors. The first master bedroom is also on this level which has picture windows, walk in closet, hardwood floors, and an attached bathroom. The master bathroom has granite countertop on vanity with custom built white cabinets, shower stall with frameless glass door. The second master bedroom is on the upper level and it has a dressing room, picture windows, hardwood floors, and an attached bathroom. Its master bathroom has a double sink vanity with granite countertops, shower stall with frameless glass door, and jacuzzi. There are 3 more family bedrooms on this level and they all have hardwood floors, picture windows, walk in closet, and share a family bathroom which has double sink vanity with granite countertop. The 3rd level is a bonus room which has a cathedral ceiling with skylights, picture windows, and hardwood floors.
This home is located in the Turning Mill neighborhood. It  has an attached 2 car garage and 6 car off street parking, and has forced air heating and central air cooling. It was initially listed for $1,799,000 but price was dropped multiple times (to $1,729,000, to $1,699,000, then to $1,649,000 ) before it went under agreement but came back on the market. It was listed again for $1,629,000 and went under agreement but came back on the market for $1,599,000. It went under agreement again and was finally sold for $1,500,000 at $357 per sq ft.

Relevance: Higher. Given that it is new construction, and larger I believe it will sell for more than your home.

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Pricing Recommendation

My analysis of the relevant homes outlined above suggests a final market value for your home of $1,170,000 - $1,220,000.  I have to caution with this though, as we've discussed many times, it is very difficult to come up with an accurate estimate for your home as quite simply there have been no homes, built in your home's era, that have sold that are a similar size to your home. The latest one that has just gone under agreement on Turning Mill at just over 3000 sq ft is under agreement but we don't know what price it is selling for. 

Given the current market dynamics in Lexington, I would suggest  listing your home at the lower end of this price range to attract more  interest and potentially multiple offers.  If the market deems your home  to be worth more than the list price, then the price will be pushed  over the market value of your home, and sometimes well over when we get  multiple offers.  

When homes are overpriced they end up sitting on the  market and ultimately selling for less than market value, whereas homes  priced realistically can often sell for well over market value.  Competition is what will get us the highest sales price. As we see time  and time again, if the buyers consider the market value of your home to  be realistic in relation to the asking price, then competition will push  the price up higher and often over the market value of the home. The  challenge with overpricing is that the buyers are very educated – they  go week after week to see homes in their price range so they KNOW what  the prices are and what ‘feels’ right.

I have to stress that these are recommendations. We would bring your home on the market at whatever price you deem to be appropriate.  

When determining the right price - it all depends on your motivation and your risk tolerance level. We know that homes that are priced at the 'strike price' will sell quicker and may generate more than one offer.  I’m an excellent negotiator and know how to push a price up if we have the market activity. I also know that some sellers want to put their home on for a higher price than I might recommend, which I’m willing to do, so long as it is understood that putting the home on for more than the majority of buyers perceive its value, could mean that your home will have a much longer market time and sell for less than it should have had it been priced properly out of the gate.

I DO NOT DETERMINE THE PRICE - the market dictates the value - what a buyer is willing to pay. My job is to make sure that you have the best market exposure and that your home is positioned well in the market.   I do not believe in projecting more money than I think your home will sell for just to get your business.

My team and I know how to stage and market your home, and I understand its value, but I can only sell it for what the market or a buyer will pay. I strongly believe that a home should be priced compared to the current competition, not just on what has sold in the last six months.  At the end of the day, you will be competing for the buyers looking for a home like yours and in the same price range. You can do far more 'damage' to the resultant price we get for your home if we overprice. The prospective serious buyers will see your home within the first weekend of your home coming on the market, and they will have seen everything else in this price range.  In other words, the serious buyer knows what is priced well.  If they don't see value in your home at its listing price and are not motivated to make an offer, then they will move on and keep looking.  In times of increasing prices, it is often hard to predict what a home will sell for, but be assured that even if we price your home lower than what market value is currently, market dynamics will bring the price of the home up to where it should be.  Prospective buyers should walk in thinking the price 'feels right' and are motivated to make an offer in the short term, rather than letting several months’ pass.

It is important to stress the value of marketing your home to capture the highest price.  In times of low inventory, we know your home will sell by doing the bare minimum to market it, BUT that is not going to get you the maximum price for your home.  Key to getting the maximum price for your home is to prepare a comprehensive marketing plan that incorporates all avenues available to us to expose your home to the maximum number of buyers out there looking.  Exposure, and feet in the door, is what will get you the highest price for your home. Basic ratios help explain this.  If 10% of the buyers who walk in your door fall in love with your home, then if you only have 10 buyers walking in, then potentially there is only 1 buyer - if you have 100 buyers walking in your door then using the same ratios, you will potentially have 10 buyers falling in love with your home.  10 buyers will push the price up versus only one buyer.

 New statistics state that over 100% of potential buyers search the web as their primary search vehicle.  Thankfully, your home will show fabulously in photos. With historically low interest rates likely to increase and inventory at a 7-year low, there are still homes that do not sell in this market.  I’m making my recommendations to ensure that you are one of the sellers who will have success in the first month of being on the market, but optimally the first weekend.

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We look forward to working with you!   Please reach out if you have any questions at all about this market analysis or our plans to market your home! 

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